Deciding whether your children or family members are ready to join or take over the family business is one of the most pivotal choices you’ll face as a business owner. It’s a decision that goes far beyond just qualifications—it impacts the future of your company, the dynamics within your family, and the legacy you hope to leave behind. Evaluating readiness takes careful consideration, introspection, and, often, conversations that aren’t always easy but are vital to helping work towards long-term success for both the business and the family.

Assessing Personal Interest and Commitment
The first and perhaps most important consideration is whether your children or family members truly want to be part of the family business. Interest and passion are foundational elements of success. Without genuine enthusiasm for the work, they may struggle to remain engaged or to weather the inevitable challenges of running a business.

It’s also essential to evaluate their commitment. Do they understand the demands of the role they’re stepping into? Joining or leading a business often requires long hours, difficult decision-making, and a willingness to put the needs of the company first. These are not responsibilities to be taken lightly, and their willingness to embrace them can be a strong indicator of readiness.

Ask questions like:

  • Are they willing to work their way up, or do they expect to start at the top
  • Do they have a long-term vision for themselves within the business?

Open conversations around these topics can clarify not only their intentions but also whether their motivations align with the business’s needs.

Evaluating Skills and Experience
While personal interest is crucial, it must be paired with the right skillset and experience. Consider whether they’ve acquired the tools necessary to succeed in their role. Have they pursued relevant education? Degrees in business management, finance, or industry-specific areas can serve as a strong foundation.

Experience, particularly outside the family business, can be even more valuable. Working in other companies allows them to develop new skills, build professional confidence, and gain perspectives that can benefit your business. Many family businesses encourage the next generation to spend a few years working elsewhere before joining. It gives them the chance to establish themselves outside the family dynamic and learn how businesses operate in a variety of environments.

Once they’re ready to join, creating a pathway for development within the family business is equally important. Rather than immediately stepping into a leadership role, encourage them to take on smaller responsibilities first. This approach not only helps them gain hands-on experience but also builds credibility with other employees.

Understanding Leadership Qualities
For family members who aspire to leadership roles, assessing their ability to lead effectively is essential. Leadership is about more than just decision-making—it’s about inspiring and managing people, navigating conflict, and maintaining composure under pressure. Do they have the communication skills to build trust with employees? Are they decisive yet open to feedback?

Emotional intelligence is another critical trait. Leaders who can manage their emotions, empathize with others, and handle interpersonal challenges with grace are better equipped to lead a team and maintain a positive company culture. Pay attention to how they handle stress and resolve disagreements—these moments often reveal whether someone is ready to lead.

Compatibility with Family and Business Values
Family businesses are often built on shared values, and continuity of those values is critical to sustaining the legacy. Assess whether the family members you’re considering share the core principles that drive your business forward. Do they understand and respect the culture, traditions, and practices that have contributed to its success?

This alignment goes beyond business strategy—it also extends to relationships within the family. Tensions can arise when personal values or goals don’t align, so it’s important to have open discussions about expectations, both for the business and the family.

Planning for Succession and Transition
Even if your children or family members demonstrate interest, skills, and leadership ability, stepping into a major role can be overwhelming without the right preparation. That’s why planning for succession is just as important as evaluating readiness.

A structured training program can ease the transition. This program might involve mentorship from senior leaders, formal training sessions, or shadowing you or other executives. By creating a clear path for growth, you can help them build the confidence and competence they’ll need to thrive.

A gradual transition of leadership is another critical step. Allowing family members to ease into their roles over time can help them gain the necessary experience and trust of other employees. This approach also allows for knowledge transfer and minimizes disruptions to the business.

Seeking Objective Perspectives
Sometimes, it’s hard to separate your role as a parent or family member from your role as a business owner. That’s where an objective perspective can be invaluable. Consider bringing in an advisor, consultant, or mentor to evaluate readiness. These external parties can provide unbiased feedback on whether a family member is equipped to take on more responsibility or step into a leadership role.

Feedback from non-family employees can also offer helpful insights. Those who have worked closely with your children or family members may be able to identify strengths and areas for growth that you might overlook.

Conclusion
Evaluating the readiness of children or family members to join or take over the family business is a complex and deeply personal process. It requires balancing the needs of the business with the goals and aspirations of the family, all while preserving the relationships and legacy that matter most. By considering their interest, skills, leadership qualities, and alignment with family values—and by creating a structured plan for their development—you can make thoughtful decisions that may help ensure the continued success of your business for generations to come.

About TFO Family Office Partners:

TFO Family Office Partners is a wealth management firm based in Phoenix, AZ, specializing in helping families nationwide thrive by Connecting Wealth and Purpose®. Our experienced team offers comprehensive services, including investment advisory, estate planning, wealth planning, accounting and bill pay, family life skills, tax consulting and compliance, philanthropic planning, and family governance.

1309-2025-02

What is a Multi-Family Office? A Guide for Ultra-High-Net-Worth Families

For ultra-high-net-worth families, managing wealth is about more than just investment portfolios, it’s about legacy, strategic planning, and effective coordination of financial affairs. This is where a Multi-Family Office (MFO) comes in.

Understanding a Multi-Family Office

A Multi-Family Office (MFO) is a financial advisory firm that provides comprehensive wealth management services to multiple affluent families. Unlike a Single-Family Office (SFO), which serves just one family, an MFO offers a shared platform, allowing families to benefit from a broader range of expertise, institutional-level resources, and cost efficiencies.

What Does a Multi-Family Office Do?

An MFO acts as a centralized hub for managing all aspects of a family’s financial life. These services include:

  1. Investment Management
    MFOs create customized investment strategies tailored to each family’s goals, risk tolerance, and long-term vision. They offer access to diverse asset classes, including private equity, real estate, and alternative investments.
  2. Estate and Legacy Planning
    Preserving wealth across generations is a key concern for ultra-high-net-worth families. MFOs work closely with legal and tax professionals to develop estate plans, trusts, and philanthropic strategies to help with a smooth transition of wealth.
  3. Tax Planning and Compliance
    Effective tax planning can be critical to optimizing wealth preservation. MFOs coordinate with tax experts to structure assets efficiently, navigate complex tax laws, and help ensure compliance with ever-evolving regulations.
  4. Family Governance and Education
    Multi-generational wealth requires thoughtful stewardship. MFOs provide family governance frameworks and educational programs to equip future generations with the knowledge and skills to manage wealth responsibly.
  5. Risk Management and Asset Protection
    MFOs assess financial risks and work towards implementing strategies to help protect assets from economic downturns, litigation, and other unforeseen challenges.
  6. Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
    For families with philanthropic interests, MFOs help establish charitable foundations, donor-advised funds, and strategic giving plans to align with their values and create a lasting impact.

Why Ultra-High-Net-Worth Families May Choose a Multi-Family Office

  • Comprehensive Wealth Management: MFOs integrate many financial aspects under one roof, providing a coordinated strategy tailored to the family’s needs.
  • Expertise and Network: Families gain access to experienced professionals and industry-leading insights.
  • Cost Efficiency: Sharing resources among multiple families reduces the overall cost compared to running a dedicated Single-Family Office.
  • Continuity and Legacy Planning: MFOs help families create long-term plans with a focus on ensuring their wealth serves future generations effectively.

Is a Multi-Family Office Right for You?

For ultra-high-net-worth families looking for a well-rounded approach to managing their financial affairs, a Multi-Family Office may provide a valuable solution. By offering tailored strategies and expert insights, an MFO works to help families preserve, grow, and transition their wealth according to their unique vision.

At TFO Family Office Partners, we specialize in guiding ultra-high-net-worth families through many aspects of wealth management. Contact us to learn how we can help you create a legacy.

About TFO Family Office Partners:

TFO Family Office Partners is a wealth management firm based in Phoenix, AZ, specializing in helping families nationwide thrive by Connecting Wealth and Purpose®. Our experienced team offers comprehensive services, including investment advisory, estate planning, wealth planning, accounting and bill pay, family life skills, tax consulting and compliance, philanthropic planning, and family governance.

Important Disclosures:

Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. TFO Family Office Partners (“TFO”) is not engaged in the practice of law.

TFO is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission, nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

1318-2025-02

Are you looking for a system to scale your business, align your leadership team, and drive long-term success? Join TFO Family Office Partners for a webinar featuring Jeremy Macliver, Expert EOS Implementer, as he introduces the Entrepreneurial Operating System (EOS), a powerful framework designed to help business owners gain clarity, strengthen leadership, and optimize operations.

What You’ll Learn in This Webinar

During this session, Jeremy will break down the essential elements for ensuring your team is fully aligned with your vision, fostering a high-performance culture of accountability, and building a business story that’s worth sharing.

  • Vision Alignment: How to ensure every team member understands and embraces the company’s direction.
  • Accountability & Ownership: Strategies to create a culture where everyone takes responsibility for success.
  • Communication & Clarity: How to keep teams engaged and motivated through clear expectations.
  • Storytelling in Leadership: Why a well-defined vision makes your business memorable and easy to champion.
  • Scaling with EOS: How these principles help businesses grow with consistency and purpose.

Whether you’re a seasoned entrepreneur or a business leader looking to streamline operations, this webinar will provide actionable strategies to help you gain traction and scale effectively.

When: Thursday, March 20
Time: 4-5 p.m. PT
Where: Zoom Webinar

Don’t miss this opportunity to learn how EOS can transform the way you run your business!

1297-2025-02

Planning ahead is key to navigating the complexities of the tax landscape. That’s why we are pleased to provide you with our 2025 Tax Reference Sheet, a convenient resource that offers quick access to important tax-related data points for the year ahead.

Whether you’re looking for updated tax brackets, contribution limits, or other essential figures, this guide is here to help you stay informed. Should you have any questions or need further information, our dedicated team of tax professionals is just a call or email away. Their contact details can be found at the bottom of the sheet.

As always, we are here to help and are committed to supporting you with the insights and resources you need.

1256-2025-01

Succession and exit planning are essential for transforming your business into a valuable asset that aligns with and supports your broader life goals. However, navigating these complex processes can feel overwhelming without expert guidance.

To help, TFO Family Office Partners is thrilled to host a webinar featuring John Chionchio, Partner at WealthPoint Business Advisory Services. This live event, hosted by TFO Family Wealth Strategist and Partner Damon Miller, will provide valuable insights into developing and executing effective succession and exit strategies.

Here’s what you’ll gain from attending the webinar:

  • Understand the why, how, and what of outcome-driven succession and exit planning:
    • Preparing your business as an asset
    • Exploring 10 monetization strategies and their impacts on desired outcomes, including:
      • ESOPs
      • 301 redemptions
      • Owner/investor models
      • Recaps
      • Hybrid solutions
      • And more
    • The keys to making great decisions
    • Little known secrets of successful execution
  • Common financial industry challenges in delivering value to business owners through exit planning.
  • How finding and partnering with a specialist provides optimal outcomes.
  • The importance of true collaboration in achieving optimal outcomes.
  • What to do right now to get succession and exit right.

1218-2024-12

Important steps to optimize your finances and minimize your taxes before the new year

As 2024 draws to a close, it’s important to think about your year-end planning. This is the perfect time to take control of your taxes and find ways to lower what you owe the IRS. While your TFO engagement team can help you with specific recommendations, here’s a simple checklist of potential actions to consider before December 31.

Prioritize Retirement Planning

Prioritize Retirement Planning by considering Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs), Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs), making both employer and employee plan contributions, and Roth IRA conversions.

RMDs: Understand that you’ll need to start taking required minimum distributions from your retirement accounts when you reach a certain age.

QCDs: If you’re 70½ or older, consider making qualified charitable distributions directly from your retirement account to charities to avoid taxes.

Contributions: Make sure to take advantage of contributions from both you and your employer to your retirement accounts.

Roth IRA Conversions: Think about converting some of your retirement savings to a Roth IRA, from which you can take tax-free withdrawals in the future.

Boost your Charitable Deductions

Boost your Charitable Deductions through the techniques below. Just remember to keep good records of your contributions and obtain qualified acknowledgement letters from the recipient charities.

Contributing to donor-advised funds (DAF): You can donate to a DAF before year-end, take a charitable deduction in 2024 and decide next year (or later) how much you would like your DAF to donate to qualified charities.

Gifting appreciated securities: Instead of selling stocks or mutual funds and paying tax on the gains, consider donating the securities in-kind to charity. As long as the security has been held for longer than a year, you can avoid tax on the gain and get a deduction for the full fair market value of the securities donated.

Making non-cash gifts: If you donate non-cash, non-marketable security items like home goods, furniture, artwork, real estate or collectibles that are worth $5,000 or more, you can get a tax deduction based on the fair market value of the items donated, but you must have the items appraised by a qualified appraiser. Additionally, the appraiser and the receiving charitable organization will both need to sign a portion of your tax return.

Using state tax credits: Many states offer generous tax credits. Unlike a deduction that reduces your taxable income, these credits can directly offset the tax you would otherwise owe. Take advantage of any state tax credits for your charitable donations, and make sure to keep good records of all your gifts.

Take Advantage of Annual Exclusion Gifting

Minimize your eventual estate tax by taking advantage of Annual Exclusion Gifting to transfer wealth without incurring gift tax.

In 2024, each person can give up to $18,000 to another person without incurring a gift tax. This means a married couple can give a combined $36,000 to any individual and can make additional $36,000 gifts to as many people as they wish. This rule not only helps lower the value of your taxable estate but also allows you to assist your loved ones in things like starting a business, buying a home, or large expenditures.

Deduct Investment Interest Expense

Deduct Investment Interest Expense to reduce your taxable income from investments and businesses.

If you have a loan or line of credit that has been used for investment purposes, consider paying unpaid interest so that you can deduct the interest payments in 2024. Generally, interest from loans where the proceeds were used to fund or acquire businesses and/or investments is deductible.

Contribute to 529 Plans

Contribute to 529 Plans before year-end.

If you’re thinking about contributing to a 529 college savings plan, be sure to make your contribution before the end of the year. Many states offer deductions or credits for these contributions, and the funds can grow tax-free, maximizing your savings for education expenses.

Defer Income and Accelerate Deductions

Defer income and accelerate deductions to optimize your tax savings.

If you wait to receive income until next year, you might lower your taxable income for this year, which could help you move to a lower tax bracket. At the same time, think about speeding up your deductions by paying some expenses early or making charitable donations before the year ends. By doing so, you can reduce the taxes you pay over the two years combined.

Be Thoughtful about Trust Distributions

Be thoughtful about Trust Distributions to make sure beneficiaries get what they’re supposed to while keeping tax rules in mind.

Trusts are taxed at a high rate of 37% when they have $14,451 or more in taxable income. When money is distributed from a trust to a beneficiary, that income is transferred to the beneficiary. If the beneficiary is in a lower tax bracket than the trust, a distribution can lower the combined taxes paid by the trust and the beneficiary.

Use your Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA)

Use your Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA) to prevent losing any of your funds.

Absent special exceptions, if FSA funds are not used by the end of the year, you forfeit the money. To avoid losing your money, check with your employer to see if there are special circumstances that will allow you to roll over a portion of the funds or if there is an extension that would allow you to use the funds in early 2025. Otherwise, consider spending on elective medical, dental or mental health care that you have been putting off.

Optimize Your Business Tax Planning

Optimize your business tax planning by taking advantage of Qualified Business Income (QBI) deductions and considering Pass-Through Entity (PTE) payments.

• Qualified Business Income (QBI) Deductions: If you own a business, you may be able to deduct up to 20% of your qualified business income, which can lower your taxable income and save you money on taxes.

• Pass-Through Entity (PTE) Payments: For businesses like sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S corporations, profits pass directly to your individual tax return, meaning you to pay taxes on your business income at your individual tax rate.

We’re always here to help you! If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to a member of your TFO engagement team.  You can download the printable checklist by clicking the button below.

These views are those of TFO Family Office Partners (“TFO”) and should not be construed as investment advice. Advisory services are provided by TFO, an SEC registered investment adviser. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Securities Exchange Commission or any other securities regulator and does not mean the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. TFO only transacts business in states where it is properly notice filed or excluded or exempted from notice filing requirements. A copy of TFOs’ current Relationship Summary and written disclosure statement discussing its business operations, services, and fees is available upon request from TFO or by going to the SEC’s website (www.adviserinfo.gov).

This content was prepared by TFO and is provided for informational purposes only. Although TFO believes these sources to be reliable it makes no representations as to their accuracy or completeness. The information contained herein is based upon certain assumptions, theories and principles that do not completely or accurately reflect your specific circumstances. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Furthermore, this email may contain certain forward-looking statements that indicate future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and factors, actual results may differ materially. As such, there is no guarantee that any views and opinions expressed herein will come to pass. The information discussed is intended to serve as a basis for further discussion with your financial, legal, tax and/or accounting advisors. It is not a substitute for competent advice from these advisors. TFO or its advisors are not authorized to practice law or provide legal advice.

1191-2024-11

By Chuck Carroll, CFA, CAIA
Chief Investment Officer
TFO Family Office Partners

Tonight, our country will focus on our electoral process of determining our next President, and other legislators who will shape our country for the next 2-4 years. Elections have been a foundational and fundamental element of our democracy for almost 250 years. They can also be polarizing and stressful, as those with strong opinions find themselves at odds with fellow Americans who hold opposing views.

It’s natural for those passionate about a candidate or a political party to perceive a connection between election results and the future performance of the stock market. After all, each of us hopes that our preferred candidate wins, and we all hope the stock market goes up. So, it feels natural to associate the two outcomes in our minds. But if we look more deeply at history, we see that the stock market hasn’t shown much preference for one political party or the other over the past 98 years.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Data presented in the growth of $1 chart is hypothetical and assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. The chart is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any investment. Source: S&P data © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.

At a fundamental level, the purpose of investing is to grow our wealth by participating in capitalism. When we invest in the stock market, we are not investing in politicians; we are buying shares of companies that entitle us to the future profits of those companies. Companies earn those profits by creating goods and providing services that help people solve problems. Auto manufacturers earn profits by helping us get around; pharmaceutical companies earn profits by creating medicines that save lives; and software companies earn profits by helping us complete tasks more efficiently. The innovation and knowledge necessary to design, distribute and continuously improve those products and services have never depended on who resides in the White House or controls Congress.

When we wake up tomorrow, or whenever the results of the election are known, we’ll likely be confronted by speculation in the media about which companies, sectors, and markets will perform best under the new administration. We urge you to tune out that noise and instead focus on what nearly 100 years of data and science tell us about the stock market:

•  Expect volatility: The stock market can be quite volatile, particularly in the short-term as investor sentiment and emotions swing stock prices. But predicting the future sentiment of millions of investors around the world is remarkably difficult to do, and the costs of getting it wrong can be incredibly high.

•  Expect the stock market to rise, over time: Whether we are talking about one day, one month or one decade, the stock market historically goes up more often than it goes down. That is a logical outcome for accepting the uncertainty described above, as investors should expect to be compensated in the form of higher expected returns. The volatility of the stock market should be viewed as a feature of the markets, not a flaw or a bug.

•  Expectations, not current events, drive stock prices: The price of a stock today doesn’t reflect what has happened; it reflects what investors think will happen in the future. If most investors agree that something is likely to happen in the future (e.g., the Fed will cut interest rates, AI will become more prevalent in our society, etc.), those expectations are already reflected in current prices and don’t represent an opportunity for outsized future returns.

•  Your goals and circumstances are the most important elements of your investment plan: There is no universal prescription for an optimal portfolio. The optimal allocation for you considers what you have, who you are, and where you want to go financially. Don’t look to the media, your peers, or salespeople for generic recommendations about how you should invest your family’s precious capital.

When the results of tonight’s election are known, roughly half of America will be disappointed. If you happen to be in that group, remember that global capitalism will continue to press on, no matter who is in the White House. We believe the future innovations that come from those capitalistic endeavors will likely continue to create profits for those who own a diversified portfolio of stocks and have the patience to hold those investments for the long-term.

As always, please feel free to connect with any member of your TFO team if you have questions.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Important Disclosures
These views are those of TFO Family Office Partners (“TFO”) and should not be construed as investment advice.

Advisory services are provided by TFO, an SEC registered investment adviser. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Securities Exchange Commission or any other securities regulator and does not mean the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. TFO only transacts business in states where it is properly notice filed or excluded or exempted from notice filing requirements. A copy of TFOs’ current Relationship Summary and written disclosure statement discussing its business operations, services, and fees is available upon request from TFO or by going to the SEC’s website (www.adviserinfo.gov).

This content was prepared by TFO and is provided for informational purposes only. The chart was sourced from Dimensional Fund Advisors and the post contains data from third party sources. Although TFO believes these sources to be reliable it makes no representations as to their accuracy or completeness. The information contained herein is based upon certain assumptions, theories and principles that do not completely or accurately reflect your specific circumstances. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Furthermore, this post may contain certain forward-looking statements that indicate future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and factors, actual results may differ materially. As such, there is no guarantee that any views and opinions expressed herein will come to pass. The information discussed is intended to serve as a basis for further discussion with your financial, legal, tax and/or accounting advisors. It is not a substitute for competent advice from these advisors. TFO or its advisors are not authorized to practice law or provide legal advice. If a numerical analysis is shown, the results are neither guarantees nor projections, and actual results may differ significantly. Any assumptions as to interest rates, rates of return, inflation, or other values are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Rates of return shown are not indicative of any particular investment and will vary over time. Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future results and should not be taken as a guaranteed projection of actual returns from any recommended investment.

1173-2024-10

As we step into October, it’s time to spotlight an essential aspect of modern life: cybersecurity. For high-net-worth individuals, safeguarding personal and financial information is not just a precaution—it’s a necessity.

This month, we recognize Cybersecurity Awareness Month, a reminder of the ever-evolving threats that can compromise our security. With increasing cyber risks, it’s crucial to be proactive in protecting your assets and privacy.

Webinar for TFO Clients:
In honor of Cybersecurity Awareness Month, we are thrilled to announce a webinar event for TFO clients, families and friends. On October 17, we’ll be joined by Dr. Chris Pierson, CEO of BlackCloak, a leading platform specializing in concierge cybersecurity and privacy protection for high-net-worth individuals and corporate executives.

During this informative session, Dr. Pierson will delve into the top five threats faced by his clients, the strategies to mitigate these risks, and essential tips for safeguarding your privacy.

Why it’s Important to Attend:
Over the past few years, cybercriminals have migrated their attacks from larger businesses and hardened targets to those where the defenses are low or non-existent – private wealth clients and/or executives. Hackers always follow the path of least resistance and that means attacking your email, home, devices, and your family. But there are things you can do to fight back and protect your finances, reputation, and personal/private pictures and data.

How to Attend:
If you’re interested in attending this vital event, or have a family member or friend who would interested, please reach out to your TFO Wealth Strategist for the invite link. Don’t miss this opportunity to enhance your understanding of cybersecurity and learn practical tips to protect what matters most.

Let’s make this Cybersecurity Awareness Month a time of education and empowerment. Together, we can navigate the digital landscape safely and securely.

 

1145-2024-10

By Chuck Carroll, CFA, CAIA
Chief Investment Officer
TFO Family Office Partners

At its September 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) is expected to cut the federal funds rate. The Fed Funds rate is the interest rate at which banks make overnight loans to one another. It’s a tool used by the Fed to control the money supply in the U.S. economy and regulate the economy. A September rate cut has been talked about in the media for some time, with many outlets providing forecasts about what it will mean to the financial markets. Below we will discuss the elements of your financial world that you should expect to change if the Fed cuts rates, and others where a Fed rate cut will likely be less impactful.

Likely direct impacts of a Fed Funds rate cut
• Yields on money market funds, CDs and bank savings accounts will likely go down slightly. The yields on these accounts tend to be tightly correlated with the Fed Funds rate.
• Interest rates on adjustable-rate loans such as adjustable-rate mortgages, credit card debt, margin loans and new student loans will likely decrease slightly.

Impacts of a Fed cut that are less clear
• The short-term direction of bond yields and prices.
• The short-term direction of stock prices.

What about the bond market?
It’s important to remember that the Fed only controls the interest rate at which banks lend to one another. The Fed does not directly control the yields on intermediate-term bonds. Bond yields (and their prices) are driven by investors’ collective expectations about the future: Future inflation, future Fed actions, future risk tolerance of investors, etc.

To see how uncorrelated bond yields are from the actions of the Fed, all we have to do is look at the last 14+ months. The last time the Fed took any action was when it raised the Fed Funds rate on July 26, 2023. Since then, it has held the Fed Funds rate constant at 5.5%. But the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has gyrated dramatically over that period, rising to almost 5% during the fall of 2023, then falling to its current mid-3% level.


Because bond yields are based on expectations, the chart above would seem to tell us that during the past 12 months investors have been incorporating their expectations of a future Fed rate cut into bond yields. As a result, Wednesday’s widely anticipated Fed rate cut is unlikely to have a direct impact on bond yields and prices.

What about the stock market?
In recent weeks, there seems to have been a flurry of media articles implying that a Fed rate cut will bring good things to the stock market. But history tells us that such a relationship isn’t as clear as the media would like us to believe.

Until the late 1980s, the Fed didn’t even use a Fed Funds rate target to set interest rate policy, instead focusing the level on nonborrowed reserves in the financial system and/or using open market operations (buying and selling of securities) to manage the U.S. economy1. Until 1994 the Fed didn’t even issue a “policy statement” describing its Fed Funds actions, much less hold press conferences to discuss its views of the economy and the rationale for its decisions2. The whole concept of “Fed watching” is only three decades old.

What can we tell from the past 30 years of transparent Fed actions? Since 1994, the Fed has cut the Fed Funds rate 30 times. Were those cuts signals that stock prices were going to rise? To answer that question, we looked at global stock market performance over the 12 months starting the 1St of the month after a Fed cut. The performance of the global stock market in the 12 months following those 30 cuts is shown below.

The chart above is likely to disappoint investors who want to believe that Fed actions influence near-term stock market performance. Stock market returns over the 12 months following a rate cut have covered an extremely wide range, from 55% in 2020 to -43% in 2008, and on average have been negative: -2.4%.

As we see in the chart above, rate cuts tend to come in bunches. What if we look at only the first rate cut in a cycle, like Wednesday’s cut would be?

There have only been five such “first cuts” in the past 30 years:

We see that “first” rate cuts have occurred in response to a variety of economic environments, and the performance of the global stock market following those cuts has also varied dramatically. To us, this is yet another piece of evidence that a Fed rate cut doesn’t mean near-term stock market gains (or losses) are a sure thing.

Summary
While a cut in the Fed Funds rate will likely result in lower yields on money market vehicles and lower debt costs on adjustable-rate debt, its potential impact on stock and bond prices isn’t clear.

If the markets do move dramatically on Wednesday (or at any time before or after), it will likely be because investors are digesting new, unexpected information. But trying to forecast what that latest information will be, and how investors will react to it, is incredibly difficult. As a result, we caution against making near-term predictions about the markets, and/or making specific decisions solely because the Fed’s actions. Rather, we encourage you to continue to have a long-term mindset and avoid letting Fed’s actions be a distraction to you.

As always, please feel free to connect with any member of your TFO team if you have questions.

Sources
1 “How did the Fed change its approach to monetary policy in the late 1970s and early 1980s?”, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, January 1, 2003
2 “Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2024”, Forbes Advisor, May 20, 2024.
3 fred.stlouisfed.org
4 Data Source: Dimensional Returns 3.0 Website.

Important Disclosures
These views are those of TFO Family Office Partners (“TFO”) and should not be construed as investment advice. This newsletter was prepared by TFO.

Advisory services provided by TFO, an SEC registered investment adviser. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Securities Exchange Commission or any other securities regulator and does not mean the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. TFO only transacts business in states where it is properly notice filed or excluded or exempted from notice filing requirements. A copy of TFOs’ current Relationship Summary and written disclosure statement discussing its business operations, services, and fees is available upon request from TFO or by going to the SEC’s website (www.adviserinfo.gov).

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only. This newsletter contains data from third party sources. Although TFO believes these sources to be reliable it makes no representations as to their accuracy or completeness. The information contained herein is based upon certain assumptions, theories and principles that do not completely or accurately reflect your specific circumstances. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Furthermore, this newsletter may contain certain forward-looking statements that indicate future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and factors, actual results may differ materially. As such, there is no guarantee that any views and opinions expressed herein will come to pass.

The information discussed is intended to serve as a basis for further discussion with your financial, legal, tax and/or accounting advisors. It is not a substitute for competent advice from these advisors. TFO or its advisors are not authorized to practice law or provide legal advice. If a numerical analysis is shown, the results are neither guarantees nor projections, and actual results may differ significantly. Any assumptions as to interest rates, rates of return, inflation, or other values are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Rates of return shown are not indicative of any particular investment and will vary over time. Any reference to past performance is not indicative of future results and should not be taken as a guaranteed projection of actual returns from any recommended investment.

1115-2024-09

Written by Chuck Carroll, TFO Family Officer Partners Chief Investment Officer

The holiday season is officially upon us, and with it comes our annual opportunity to gather with family and friends and share joy with those we love. If you’re anything like me, those family gatherings also provide a great opportunity to smile and raise a glass to fond memories and funny stories about loved ones who are no longer with us.

One of my most vivid memories of my late father was his passion for photography. A number-crunching, business-advising Certified Public Accountant by day, on the weekends (at least those he wasn’t working) he was passionate about all things photographic. During my youth–the late 1970s and 1980s– technology hadn’t yet blessed photographers with the digitalization and miniaturization that we take for granted in today’s mobile phones and digital cameras. As a result, serious photo hobbyists could easily acquire a closet full of camera bodies, various-sized lenses, light meters, and other related paraphernalia. When we traveled on family vacations, my father would pack a separate carry-on bag (think extra-large padded duffel bag) of camera gear, which never left his side. To this day, my mom just shakes her head and sighs when she describes us weaving through a crowded airport, she, my sister, and I carrying the bulk of our family luggage because no one other than Dad was allowed to handle “the bag.”

When I would ask him (as I think I did on every trip) why just one camera and one lens wasn’t enough, his response was always the same: “You never know.” I’ve since come to appreciate that phrase, because the photos in our digital frame that we cherish the most aren’t the meticulously posed, digitally enhanced images of family photo shoots. While we appreciate those, the photos that really make us smile are the candid snapshots taken in the waves, at a sporting event, or just doing something silly in our own backyard. The wonderful images that only exist because the person taking the picture had the foresight to think, “you never know.”

In the financial markets, the month of November was analogous to one of those memorable candid snapshots. November didn’t provide any dramatic newsworthy events to anchor in our memory: No great advance in treating a life-threatening human condition, no peaceful ending to a worrisome military conflict, no global economic boom. In fact, earlier this Fall many market pundits had been downright pessimistic about the impact that lingering inflation, falling commercial real estate prices and a host of other concerns might have on the global stock market.

But yet, in the face of that pessimism and without an obvious catalyst, the global stock market turned in one of its most impressive months in history. The 9.3% return achieved by the market in November was the best monthly return since 20201 and ranked in the top 3% of the 1,175 months of market history going back to 19261.

What was more surprising to many investors in the month of November was that the US bond market gave us a surprise that one-upped the stock markets. At the end of October, the US bond market had suffered through its worst three-year period history, falling over 15% during that time1. But investors betting on a continued decline in bond prices were surprised to see the bond market quickly reverse and post a 4.6% return in November, its best month since “Back to the Future” hit the theaters and “The Cosby Show” ruled the TV ratings1. In fact, November’s bond market performance was the 8th best monthly return in the past 1,175 months1.

While some pessimists might try to downplay November’s returns as just a meaningless one-month blip in a downward trend, the long-term impact on an investor who chose to be out of the market, and thus missed the significant one-month returns described above, could be quite dramatic. For example, a hypothetical investor who chose the comfort of their savings account over a 60/40 portfolio of stock and bonds didn’t just miss out on the unusually strong returns that the market provided in November. The opportunity cost of missing just those 31 days, when compounded over a multi-year or multi-decade time horizon, could potentially double or triple the initial amount.

Any great photographer knows that being prepared for life’s unpredictability can help to capture once-in-a-generation moments.  Staying fully invested in markets, even when recent results have been disappointing and the news seems bleak, can do the same thing for your wealth. After all, you never know.

Important Disclosure:

Note: Throughout this document, the Global Stock Market refers to the following blend on indexes: CRSP 1-10 US Market from 1926-1969, MSCI World from 1970-1987 and MSCI All-Country World from 1988-present. The US Bond Market refers to the following blend of indexes: US 5-Year Treasury from 1926-1972, Bloomberg US Govt/Credit Bond Index from 1973-1975, and Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index from 1976-present. Indexes are not available for investment and do not take into consideration fees and expenses.

1Data Source: Dimensional Returns

TFO Family Office Partners (“TFO”) is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

This communication is intended to be informational in nature and is not intended to be construed as individualized financial advice or a specific recommendation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. We believe this information provided is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. It is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or tax advice. TFO is not in the practice of law.

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client’s portfolio. There are no assurances that a portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.

Certain information herein has been obtained from third party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of this document.

This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio’s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of TFO or any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances. All statements made herein speak only as of the date that they were made.

827-2023-12